X Prize Update
Summer is approaching fast and with it the culmination of the Progressive Automotive X Prize. A year ago 111 teams from around the world entered this competition to build a clean, safe and quick 100 MPGe car; after last month’s Shakedown stage only 24 teams remain.
Of the 8 teams that remain in the mainstream class (4-wheel, 4-passenger cars with a range of at least 200 miles) only one, the Illinois-based Illuminati team, has an electric car. On the other hand, the alternative classes (2 passenger, 100 mile range) are dominated by electrics; of the 17 teams remaining, 11 have electric entries and only 2 use internal combustion engines. Range is proving a challenge for electric cars in the X Prize, just as it is in the larger world of production automobiles.
Next is the Knockout stage, beginning June 20, again at the Michigan International Speedway. Follow-up technical inspections of all entries will precede track testing for performance and efficiency, and cars must achieve 67 MPGe and demonstrate a range of 134 miles (67 for alternative classes) to qualify for the Finals stage in July.
Edison2, like all teams, has a lot of work to do to get ready for the next stage. But we think we are well-positioned as the contest enters its final months. We are the only team entered in both the mainstream and alternative classes – all 4 of our cars passed the Shakedown stage – and preliminary results showed us nearing 85 MPGe. We know we can do better with improvements in engine mapping, gearing and launches.
Exceeding 100 MPGe is a stiff challenge but a challenge we believe we can meet.
X Prize
Reader Comments (11)
Good luck. Hope all your entries reach final.
I’ve gone through the competitor list and will venture a handicapper’s guess on the results. Of course, there isn’t enough info to really assess their prospects. I agree with Oliver’s statements about the “virtues” of low weight and good aerodynamics. However, I fear that Edison2 has underestimated the need to have an extremely efficient engine also. If you look at energy flows in a car (see Wikipedia: Fuel Economy in Automobiles), you’ll see about 2/3 of the fuel energy goes to engine losses. This dwarfs all other losses. NOTE: About half or more of this loss is unavoidable due to thermodynamic constraints.
Here are approx. Specific Fuel Consumptions of various types of engines (lb/hp-hr) :
Typ. Gas engine= 0.50, Advanced Gas engine= 0.40, Typ. TurboDiesel=0.40, Prius engine (gas Atkinson)=0.37, Modern TurboDiesel (from VW or Audi): 0.33, Large TurboDiesels= as low as 0.25.
Therefore, if the VLC is getting 85 MPG at 0.40 SFC, then about 85*(0.40/0.33)=103MPG could be acheived by using a modern turbodiesel. Also, if you look at the 2D map of SFC, diesels are much more forgiving, vs. the small “sweet spot” of optimum efficiency for gas engines. In the interest of low engine weight and superior efficiency, I believe the optimum engine is a turbocharged 2-stroke diesel. Ironically, no one yet makes these in small displacements, yet they are the STANDARD for large engines in ships, locomotives, etc. Emissions can be dealt with using modern technology.
I hope that the VLC can make the 100 MPG cutoff, but it’s going to be really tight with today’s engine, no regeneration, etc.
Here are my predictions, and reasons (remember, the XP rules scandalously favor electric or plug-in hybrid cars vs. fuel burning ones by a MPGe factor of about 2X).
ALTERNATIVE TANDEM:
1st= eTracer - electric, small frontal area, very well streamlined, light. No contest.
2nd=FVT Racing – gas/plug-in hybrid, small frontal area, well streamlined, light
ALTERNATIVE SIDE-BY-SIDE: (harder to call)
1st=Li-Ion Motors WAVE II - electric, small front area, very well streamlined (probably lower Cd than Aptera or VLC - compare shape to winning human powered vehicles)
2nd= Western Wash U Viking45 – electric/gas hybrid, fairly small frontal area, streamlined, light
3rd (tie) Alias & eRex – electric, small frontal area, kind-of streamlined, light
MAINSTREAM (I’m fearful NONE will make 100 MPG…sorry Oliver I hope I'm wrong! )
1st=Cornell Redshift – TurboDiesel+plug-in hybrid, streamlined, moderate frontal area, pretty light
2nd=Illuminati Seven – electric, well streamlined (weight will probably hurt it)
3rd=Edison2 VLC – well streamlined, very light (if it can meet 100 MPG threshold)
Best of luck to all,
Kevin
Hi Kevin, your observations are very valuable, even if I disagree with some of your predictions. The problem is that no-one have "extremely efficient ICE" for cars. Mammoth marine engines have 50%. In cars they never exceed 40%, at peak. There is a place for improvement, but no one so far demonstrated such engine.
Please don't forget that EV vehicles have to acheive more then 100 mpge - 116 if I'm not mistaken.
Matt,
Thanks for the kind words. My guesses are only an educated SWAG, and there are so many variables. Disagreement between informed people is a great source of learning – please feel free! Your thoughts ?
What you say about efficiency is true. Gasoline has an energy density of 0.136 lb/hp-h, so the ~50% efficiency of huge marine diesels is a Specific Fuel Consumption of 0.27 lb/hp-h. I wasn’t trying to imply a car engine can match this today…but it is a “proof point” that it is technically feasible. Modern production turbodiesels (VW and Audi) have a peak SFC of 0.33, which is ~41% thermal efficiency.
My prior comments about the misguided XP rules were based solely on the MPGe calculation for electric cars vs. fuel burning ones. So, last night, I got a bit obsessed and dove into the XP spreadsheet to understand how the Green House Gas limit of 200 g/mi affects things. I also did a full matrix study of plug-in hybrid systems. Here’s what I found:
1. The GHG limit only increases the calculated MPGe threshold for electric cars a little bit – to 114 MPGe. However, this is like giving the electric cars a 50 MPG “headstart” (vs. true amount of fuel burned) then taking back 7mpg and calling it good. In other words, to achieve 100 MPG, a fuel burning car must burn one gallon of gasoline (or energy equivalent of a different fuel) per 100 miles. An electric car, under the XP rules can burn about 1.75 times this amount of fuel (at the power plant), to meet the GHG limit. In other words – an electric car really only needs to be “57 MPG” in terms of fuel usage to pass the 100 MPGe + 200 g/mi threshold.
Don’t get me wrong – I’m enthusiastic about electric cars as well as engines. However, I feel that the X-Prize folks have lost integrity by creating the rules as they have done. Clearly NOT a level playing field!
2. I had thought that maybe a plug-in hybrid could balance the MPG and GHG thresholds to achieve something better than pure electric or pure fuel-burning. However, my analysis showed clearly that this is not the case. There is no advantage whatsoever in adding a fuel-burning engine in the car vs. winning, except the benefit of lower weight.
3. The amount of electric energy that equates to the 200 g/mi GHG limit over 100 miles is 29.8 KW-h. Therefore, it would seem that an electric car in the alternative competitions should use an approx. 30 KW-h battery, and Mainstream class cars should use about 60 KW-h (for 200 miles). Any less is just self-limiting available energy, and any larger battery is not usable. For reference, the first generation Tesla battery pack is 53 KW-h, and weighs about 1000 pounds. They claim a range of 200 miles.
4. What does this all mean for the competitors? Well….low weight and good aerodynamics remain “virtues” as Oliver has said. However, under the XP rules it is really best to have a Battery Electric Vehicle, even though it adds weight. Also, for example, even if the Edison2 or BITW teams should be able to meet the 100 MPG threshold (a wonderful accomplishment) they will be “limping” across the finish line. An equivalently engineered BEV will probably have in the neighborhood of 30% to 40% extra energy (even more with braking regeneration) to accelerate faster or reach higher speeds.
The creativity and good engineering from Edison2, Cornell, BITW and others have shown that a PRACTICAL high-mileage car is within grasp. If these entries top-out at, say, only 90 MPG that is still a fantastic achievement and they will be doing the world a great favor. This is much bigger than just the X-Prize. My hat is off to all the teams (including the EV’s) for the effort they are putting out.
Kevin
I feel like I’m talking with myself here…isn’t anybody out there following the X-Prize? Isn’t anyone else concerned about the distorted way the X-Prize committee stacked the rules? Although some might suspect I’m some kind of whacko because I’ve been so long-winded, let me assure you I’m not strange or crazy – just informed and energized on the subjects of alternative energy, car engines and the reduction of fossil fuel use.
My predictions for the race winners were a bit premature – sorry. There really isn’t enough published info to compare with confidence. With more online sleuthing, I found more info and saw that a number of the BEV’s seem to be using batteries (and motors) that are smaller than optimum. Therefore, in the Alt. Side-by-Side class, the Zap and Raceabout now bubble to the top of my list. My Tandem choices remain the same and the Mainstream changes to Edison2 and Cornell, if either can make the MPG cutoff.
I really like what Edison2 has done with their design. Part of the reason I’ve been decrying the XP rules is that I believe that while they probably have the car which uses the LEAST fossil fuel, they probably still will not win due to the flawed rules. I found a more direct way to “prove” how lopsided the rules are. The amount of Greenhouse gasses (of course) are a direct indicator of how much hydrocarbon fuel was burned. The rules limit electric cars to 200 g/mi of GHG, while a fueled car is limited to the equiv of 1 gallon of gasoline, which over 100 miles is 116 g/mi of GHG. The ratio: 200/116 = 1.72 is how much MORE fuel the electric car is allowed to “burn”.
Lastly, let’s look at the available energy to power the cars – to win the race. The VLC engine has a stated thermal efficiency of >34% (SFC of >0.4). A gallon of gasoline has an energy content of about 34 KWh. 34% of 34 KWh = 11.6 KWh of useful energy to power the car 100 miles. In contrast, the amount of electric energy (out of the plug) allowed in 100 miles (limited by GHG) is 29.9 KWh. A typical modern BEV system can have a plug-to-wheel efficiency (including charger / controller / motor losses) of 70% to 80%, or even higher. This means that 21- 24 KWh of energy is available to drive the car 100 miles. 22.5/11.6 = about 2. In other words – not only do the X-Prize rules give electric vehicles 72% more “fuel”, electric cars which are optimally designed vs. the rules will have about twice the available average power. I don’t believe that even with the excellent Edison2 design’s low weight and low drag they can make-up this huge handicap. If they do win – then their win would be epic, and a testament to their high-efficiency approach.
Unless someone asks something or takes this conversation in a new direction – I promise, this will be my last posting on this subject. Sorry if I beat this one to death! If anyone thinks I’ve got this wrong – I’d be very open to discussion . Cheers, Kevin
"remember, the XP rules scandalously favor electric or plug-in hybrid cars vs. fuel burning ones by a MPGe factor of about 2X"
Once you study the data and learn what an American NEEDS versus what the Xprize rules cover (and what the big auto manufactures sell), you understand that "rigged" is an understatement of the century: In your argument you're merely pushing numbers and statistics around on the EV side that makes a very basic flawed assumption -- and when you label these results as "scandalous" you start to put wild emotion on top of even wilder statistics.
The flaw? It is completely within the realm of possibility that an EV Xprize contender could elect to put solar cells and a wind generator on top of their RV at the racetrack and fuel their vehicle solely on those green sources of power (directly to the additional race battery packs), then what would your GHG calculations look like for that vehicle?
Scandalous indeed that they don't favor EV's more than just 2x! But wait, you say they've made the rules require "grid-tied electricity"! To which I merely state "What are the additional GHG additions applied to the ICE vehicles for release and cleanup of British Petroleum's little snafu in the Gulf, and in the OTHER Gulf, that little war we've got going on to stabilize the oil producing region?" But that quickly devolves into a lies, damn lies and statistics argument.
So let's get back to focusing on reality. The unique quality of an Electric Vehicle using grid tied electricity is that with no change at all it can get greener with age as the grid becomes more green (or the owner opts for solar cells), while your ICE gets dirtier as it becomes more out of tune...
But I want to strongly emphasize that this argument is purely titling at windmills (which I like to do): The Xprize is a race, not a competition based on reality. You do not get bonus points for achieving greater than 100 MPGe, and your vehicle must be able to go 80mph. How many places are there in the US where it is legal to go 80 mph? How sustainable for efficiency is it to go 80 mph (air resistance becomes the greatest force to overcome after about 30-35 mph)? How many people in the US have the opportunity to go 80 mph on their way to and from work? The American Open Road is closed: it's now a myth, traffic jams are the reality.
Here's a pretty picture based on reality (I have more, if you're interested):
www.illinois.edu/goto/drivinghabits
Here's what it shows: Eighty percent of Americans who drive (this was in the "cheap gas" era -- 1990, so we can expect it to be less now) drive 50 miles a day or less. HALF of us drive 25 miles a day or less. Registered cars have outnumbered licensed drivers in the US for quite some time -- this means that most households own 2 (or more!) cars. Most trips are single passenger (driver). So an EV 30-40 mile range, with the ability to charge up in less-than the time it takes you to get a full days' work done (ie, 8 hours) will cover 80% of America's needs. Need to drive farther or carry more passengers? Take the gas car -- the bulk of your normal everyday travel will be more than satisfied by an electric vehicle that doesn't get close to the Xprize required range, nor the Xprize required speed, but it BLOWS the Xprize minimum MPGe away -- my around town and daily communing driving has been tons of fun with an 11 year old Twike Active, getting somewhere between 150-600 MPGe depending on whether I pedal or not and whether I have a green/renewable source of electricity to charge on. And in a small vehicle, 20 feels like 30-35, and 40 feels like 80 (especially when carving a corner at 20mph!)
And the kicker on all of this that significantly diminishes the value of my argument and the Xprize itself is that if you're really a student of vehicular sustainability and want rapid marked improvement, you find out that it's worth FAR more to work to change the infrastructure than the vehicle that you drive: You eliminate stop signs in favor of roundabouts (or yield signs) and get stoplights timed (or again, moved to roundabouts) and you impact EVERY vehicle's MPG that uses those roads as well as significantly cut their commute time while driving slower and more safely. Oh yes, and not old skool Boston roundabouts and European traffic circles, but modern, well designed roundabouts: http://roundabout.kittelson.com/ Drove 'em in Boston, hated 'em. Drove one in Madison, WI and fell in love.
M@
Twike 433 -- www.illinois.edu/goto/twike
Kevin:
While I agree the rules favor electrics in the alternative categories, it's not quite as clear-cut as you're making it. If you want to charge electric vehicles for transmission losses, etc., then you really have to start charging IC vehicles well-to-pump also, and include fuel shipping waste/energy, energy/loss at refineries, etc. That calculation would be so arbitrary that the measuring at vehicle input instead is a reasonable alternative despite the difficulties.
Hi Kevin and Twike,
I really appreciate both your comments. Time will tell. We set out to win the X Prize and we set out to have something to sell afterwards. It is for this reason we choose our path with full understanding of the math and rules (You clearly and correctly understand it). As you pointed out it is our intention to make an "epic" point. There is a gamble involved but those who actually make the big decisions will understand what we are up to if they are watching. In order to be competitive choosing our path we had to really rethink the car. Having a 4 seat car that weighs in at 712 lbs with heat and cooling and made with an inexpensive and safe steel chassis is no accident. In the end that is what we sell. We feel that the honeymoon period of electric cars could easily come to an end or just not be there in sufficient quantity. We also know what we have to sell is worth a lot to the electric car industry if they become a force. The new CAFE standard is proving we were right. The people who are interested are another point. If and when electric cars are not bought in sufficient numbers and if and when the problems with grid, material supply and technology rear their ugly head there is only one "plan B" and we are well along the path. We choose the road less traveled because we wanted to create value. We all know that energy independence, balance of trade, reduction of pollution (and now CAFE) are problems we must solve.
Remember we solve the problems with a cheap car, cheap to build and cheap to operate while nicely performing. The real success of good design is when you can make the complicated simple... We are very proud of our car which is all about "less is more" and do not fret we will surprise... Your numbers are right and we understand them. I really appreciate your comments, in a sea of no understanding it is refreshing. Oliver
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